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Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

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Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2023 Sep 27 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 27-Sep 29 2023 is 4.00 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 27-Sep 29 2023

	Sep 27	Sep 28	Sep 29
00-03UT	4.00	2.67	2.00
03-06UT	3.00	2.67	2.00
06-09UT	2.00	2.33	2.33
09-12UT	1.67	1.67	2.00
12-15UT	2.33	1.33	1.33
15-18UT	2.00	1.33	3.00
18-21UT	2.67	1.67	3.33
21-00UT	2.33	1.33	4.00

Rationale: There is a slight chance for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms on 29 Sep if the CME from 25 Sep clips the Earth as it combines with the anticipated CH HSS arrival.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 27-Sep 29 2023

	Sep 27	Sep 28	Sep 29
S1 or greater	15%	15%	10%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for an S1 (Minor) solar radiation event through 29 Sep.

Radio Blackout Activity

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 27-Sep 29 2023

	Sep 27	Sep 28	Sep 29
R1-R2	40%	45%	35%
R3 or greater	15%	15%	10%

Rationale: There remains a chance for isolated R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) Radio Blackouts through 29 Sep primarily due to ARs 3435 and 3445.

Sun Images

eit 171	eit 195	eit 284	eit 304


Images: From left to right: EIT 171, EIT 195, EIT 284, EIT 304 EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.

SDO/HMI Continuum	SDO/HMI Magnetogram	LASCO C2	LASCO C3


The MDI (Michelson Doppler Imager) images shown here are taken in the continuum near the Ni I 6768 Angstrom line. The most prominent features are the sun spots.		LASCO (Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph) is able to take images of the solar corona by blocking the light coming directly from the Sun with an occulter disk, creating an artificial eclipse within the instrument itself.
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Introduction Movie

Conditions on the Sun and in the solar wind, magnetosphere, ionosphere and thermosphere that can influence the performance and reliability of space-borne and ground-based technological systems and can endanger human life or health. This introduction movie in the English language will open on a new tab/window when you click on the image below.