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Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

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Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2026 Feb 01 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 01-Feb 03 2026 is 1.67 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 01-Feb 03 2026

	Feb 01	Feb 02	Feb 03
00-03UT	0.33	1.67	1.67
03-06UT	0.67	1.33	1.33
06-09UT	1.67	1.00	1.00
09-12UT	1.00	1.00	1.00
12-15UT	1.33	0.67	0.67
15-18UT	1.33	1.33	1.33
18-21UT	1.33	1.67	1.67
21-00UT	1.33	1.67	1.67

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 01-Feb 03 2026

	Feb 01	Feb 02	Feb 03
S1 or greater	5%	5%	10%

Rationale: S1 (Minor) or greater probabilities begin to increase on 03 Feb as Region 4366 rotates into a more favorable location for connection.

Radio Blackout Activity

Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Feb 01 2026 1212 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 01-Feb 03 2026

	Feb 01	Feb 02	Feb 03
R1-R2	55%	55%	55%
R3 or greater	10%	10%	10%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts due to M-class flares, with a slight chance for an isolated X-class event (R3 or greater), will persist through 03 Feb given the evolution and history of Region 4366.

Sun Images

eit 171	eit 195	eit 284	eit 304


Images: From left to right: EIT 171, EIT 195, EIT 284, EIT 304 EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.

SDO/HMI Continuum	SDO/HMI Magnetogram	LASCO C2	LASCO C3


The MDI (Michelson Doppler Imager) images shown here are taken in the continuum near the Ni I 6768 Angstrom line. The most prominent features are the sun spots.		LASCO (Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph) is able to take images of the solar corona by blocking the light coming directly from the Sun with an occulter disk, creating an artificial eclipse within the instrument itself.
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Introduction Movie

Conditions on the Sun and in the solar wind, magnetosphere, ionosphere and thermosphere that can influence the performance and reliability of space-borne and ground-based technological systems and can endanger human life or health. This introduction movie in the English language will open on a new tab/window when you click on the image below.